Predicting Short-duration GRB Rates in the Advanced LIGO Volume

Starting with models for the compact object merger event rate, short-duration Gamma-ray Burst (sGRB) luminosity function, and Swift/BAT detector, we calculate observed Swift sGRB rate its uncertainty. Our probabilistic world model reproduces number distributions in redshift flux 123 detected sGRBs can be used to predict joint sGRB/LIGO detection rates. We discuss dependence of predictions on parameters explore how they vary increasing experimental sensitivity. In particular, bursts LIGO volume depends strongly that govern beaming. results suggest nearby should have broader jets average ($\theta_{\rm jet}\gtrsim 30$ degrees), as compared narrowly-beamed appearance cosmological due selection effect driving jet angle. Assuming all are mergers, within a $D < 200$ Mpc aLIGO volume, $0.18^{+0.19}_{-0.08}$ sGRB/GW associations all-sky per year on-axis events at sensitivities, $1.2^{+1.9}_{-0.6}$ inclusion off-axis events. consistency our GW170817/GRB~170817A context structured jets. Predictions future experiments made.